Throughout history, humans have been considered arguably the smartest animal to exist by many. Due to our ability to influence ecosystems through tools and using our brains, we can also be considered apex predators. However, what if there was something smarter that can potentially be the reason for our species downfall? Not an alien, fear of the unknown, or any creature in general but a machine. Something that can perform tasks that require human intelligence through speech and visual perception and can make decisions for itself. That is what’s known as artificial intelligence (AI). During this past decade, improvements in this field have skyrocketed. Compared to the industrial revolution where humans have been using machines to increase the speed of work, soon humans can be eliminated altogether and just let the machine do the work. Therefore, it’s considered controversial and so this proposes the research question: How will the advancement of artificial intelligence affect the employment rate and economy of different industries between the 21st-22nd century?

           To start, it is predicted, “computer science employment will grow 15% from 2019 to 2029” (Labor of Bureau). This is very significant because this means that the field is heavily in demand and continues to keep growing. On the contrary, it can also be very scary to many because computer science is associated with AI due to the coding required to build on the idea of machine intelligence. The increase in the job of computer science will accelerate the progress of AI which leaves many people at the edge of their seats since a machine could do what they can but better and faster. According to the newspaper article “Will a Robot Take Your Job? Artificial Intelligence’s Impact on the Future of Jobs” it says, “AI guru Kai-Fu Lee — CEO of Sinovation Ventures and author of the 2018 book “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order” — posits that 50% of all jobs will be automated by AI inside of 15 years” (Thomas,2021). It is a known fact that when companies start adding AI to their business, many people will lose their jobs. This is proven by history as when the industrial revolution happened, man-made products went out of business while products that were mass-produced in factories bloomed. This is because not only was it faster and cheaper but also due to it having the same quality. There is a type of duality going on between the people gaining jobs and the people that are potentially going to lose them. Jobs are blooming for the computer science and AI fields because they still need improvements in their area while anyone else is at risk of danger since a computer will do their jobs but better. Essentially, it is a ticking time bomb for them on how fast future engineers develop innovations.

           Additionally, many say employees need retraining due to the negative impacts AI will have in the next three years. In the article “Artificial Intelligence and Its Impact on Jobs,” the author wrote, “Bloomberg reports that “more than 120 million workers globally will need retraining in the next three years due to artificial intelligence’s impact on jobs, according to an IBM survey” (Rege,2020). There is a huge chance company will not retrain its employees. Why may you ask? Why would a company waste their time and resource helping someone when a machine could do it better? Not only are they going to miss out on potential revenue helping workers outperform machines, but many companies will be forced to pay these workers just for training them. Unless the government pays for the employee’s retraining or makes some sort of law supporting it, it is very unlikely companies will give the workers free training. In the same reading, it states “The … workers with a bachelor’s degree, for example, would be exposed to AI over five times more than those with only a high school degree. That is due to the fact AI is very strong at completing tasks that require planning, learning, reasoning, problem-solving and predicting – most of which are skills we think of as white-collar jobs” (Rege,2020). In a sense, the advancement of AI will create a type of monopoly but with jobs. Only the field of computer science, AI, and other related fields will be able to have consistent jobs since they are the ones contributing to this. However, what would become of other jobs that require a bachelor’s degree? Does that make their passion and all the years of their hard work and money wasted in college, useless? Potentially, a college degree could matter far less since AI will provide everything and many may end up stopping pursuing higher education. Therefore, it’s so dangerous because it can affect anyone while further increasing economic disparities between the rich and poor.    

           On the topic of economy, it is said by consulting company Accenture that AI could double annual global economic growth rates by 2035 (Szczepański,2019). What makes this so consequential is because AI will have a part in increasing the global economy by two times. To put this in perspective, when this briefing was written, the world economy was estimated to be 133 trillion dollars. That means the world economy by 2035 would be 266 trillion dollars world economy and AI is putting half the amount. This is an insane amount even for a single innovation like AI. It is safe to say regardless of whether we want it to happen or not, AI will play a huge role in the economy for better or worse. It will certainly help the already rich people such as Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk to further amplify their wealth compared to the common people. For example, the article “AI will ‘exacerbate’ wealth inequality and help ultra-rich: Ex-Google exec” on yahoo finance says, “When it’s simultaneously making a small number of people ultra-rich and making many people jobless… That is the wealth inequality problem that AI will exacerbate (Zahn,2021). The problem with rich billionaires having more money than they can do will only worsen because they will use AI to further monetize their products. How? Two of the largest billionaires in the world: Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos both own multiple companies and having AI will certainly make it easier to manage their staffs because if you program an AI to do something, it will do it to the script. Even if AI will double the world economy, many of the poor will continue to stay poor while the wealthy get even wealthier, so it won’t change much.

           Multiple factors can affect economic growth. According to the Global McKinsey Institute with the introduction to AI, the global GDP will see an increase in 1.2 percent additional GDP each year (Discussion Paper,2011). The factors that contributed to the increase in GDP to AI include labor automation, innovation, and new competition, which affect AI-driven productivity growth (Discussion Paper,2011). A big major disadvantage to this would be is further increasing the gap between countries due to AI. Although the GDP is increasing, not all countries are technologically the same. For example, Africa is far less technologically advanced than China so they would utilize AI far less. In the same article, it says “Leading AI countries could capture an additional 20 to 25 percent in net economic benefits, compared with today, while developing countries might capture only about 5 to 15 percent” (Discussion Paper,2011). This is more significant than people realize as AI can lead to an unbalance of world powers and eventually one country being too powerful than the others due to the advancement of AI. This can also affect the workers. There could be a shift of employees looking from people that are good at repetitive tasks to good cognitively driven and are social. Companies might lower wages and salaries since they are far less formidable than before and overall harm the workers but good for the company. To sum up, AI will overall harm the world economy because it can create tension between countries, a power imbalance between wealthy and poor, and finally the overall conditions of workers.

           Finally, artificial intelligence will have a major impact on many different industries. For starters, the industry it arguably might have the highest impact on is the manufacturing industry. This is mainly since AI will be able to function without the use of humans which means machines will be able to build the products it’s supposed to by themselves. According to Microsoft news, it says, “suggests that by 2025 the price of industrial robots will drop by 65 percent” (Judah,2018). This is significant because you can predict that this will start a demand for AI since they will become a lot cheaper than now. When investing companies usually check if what they are buying gives them more revenue or at least go equal to equal. If robots become a lot cheaper, it can mean that the need for humans would decline which results in job loss for many. Other industries AI could affect are health care, public sector, retail, and even construction. It could be very useful in health care because it could leave the workforce to work with more challenging problems while they leave the minor stuff to the AI. An example they gave was high complexity diagnostics (Judah,2018). In addition, AI can have a very good impact on the transportation industry and even electrical production. For example, the paper “Artificial Intelligence across different industries” states, “AI can also contribute to improving predictions of weather scenarios and natural disasters” (Popper/Hermann,2018). This is very significant in the future because it can help prevent disasters during very rough weather and disasters. If we can predict when and what will happen, it will allow us to countermeasure. So, in a way, this has a good economy and could increase employment in these industries.

           Some people may say that artificial intelligence is a good thing because the advancement of AI will have a positive effect on the employment rate and economy. However, there are far more negatives than positives to the introduction of AI in the real world. The most common drawback is usually the loss of jobs. This is a significant factor for many as most of the working people are middle class and need a 9-5-hour job to put food on the table. The second reason is that it leads to economic instability. For instance, not only does it widen the gap between wealthy and poor further, but it also creates an economic disparity between countries that are far more advanced than the others. Most importantly, if AI progresses, it will make people lazier and find innovations less and less. The academic source paper says, “While it is, of course, possible that further breakthroughs will lead to a technology that can meaningfully mimic the nature of human subjective intelligence and emotion, the recent advances that have attracted scientific and commercial attention are well removed from these domains” (Cockburn,2018). What this paper essentially says is that although it is impressive that AI can mimic human nature, it will lead to the downfall of humans because whatever we can do, the AI can do but better. On paper, this seems like a good idea but practically innovation is key to the development of society. If people tend to not innovate, we will not advance as a society.

           In conclusion, the advancement of Artificial intelligence (AI) will harm the employment rate and economy but also will provide some benefits towards certain industries. For example, the employment rate will decline because people will lose jobs since the computer is just a better human brain. Although the economy will skyrocket, the impacts will provide power tension between different countries as many countries are far less advanced than others. Not only that but it will also further increase the gap between the wealthy and poor. Finally, although the things I mentioned will vary between industries, a couple will flourish. This is because having the ability to predict the weather can make transportation and electrical engineering easier. Not to mention the fact that health care workers can focus on more deadly diseases while leaving the easier ones to the AI. To sum it up, overall, AI doesn’t look too good in the future despite it being inevitable. 

 

 

Bibliography:

Thomas, Mike. “Will a Robot Take Your Job? Artificial Intelligence’s Impact on the Future of Jobs.” Built In, Builtin, 25 July 2021, https://builtin.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-replacing-jobs-creating-jobs.

Indeed Editorial Team. “Job Outlook for Careers in Computer Science.” Indeed Career Guide, Indeed, 23 Mar. 2021, https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/finding-a-job/job-outlook-for-computer-science#:~:text=The%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics,opportunities%20for%20technological%20development%20arise.

 

’21, Emilie Dozer. “Artificial Intelligence and Its Impact on Jobs – Newsroom: University of St. Thomas.” Newsroom | University of St. Thomas, University of St. Thomas, 4 Aug. 2021, https://news.stthomas.edu/artificial-intelligence-and-its-impact-on-jobs/.

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Zahn, Max. “AI Will ‘Exacerbate’ Wealth Inequality and Help Ultra-Rich: Ex-Google Exec.” Yahoo! News, Yahoo!, 17 Sept. 2021, https://news.yahoo.com/ai-will-exacerbate-wealth-inequality-and-help-ultra-rich-ex-google-exec-142326085.html.

Bughin, Jacques, et al. “Notes from the AI Frontier: Modeling the Impact of AI on the World Economy.” McKinsey & Company, McKinsey & Company, 20 Nov. 2019, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/artificial-intelligence/notes-from-the-ai-frontier-modeling-the-impact-of-ai-on-the-world-economy.

Popper, Jens., Hermann, Jeskos “(PDF) Artificial Intelligence across Industries – IEC Whitepaper.” ResearchGate, Research Gate, Oct. 2018, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329191549_Artificial_intelligence_across_industries_-_IEC_Whitepaper.

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